I have a theory. The conservative population exodus from California and New York during the COVID pandemic years shifted the battleground states to be more Red than Blue, and thus, the Electoral College swung to the Trump column.
This October 2024 Newsweek article hints at the possibility. The article notes the well-known trend that “the country’s biggest, bluest states have been losing their residents since the pandemic hit more than four years ago.”
California and New York are the most notable. California lost nearly 570,000 residents and New York dropped over 630,000. The Newsweek article implied, rather hopefully, that this departure would turn Red States into Blue. What if the folks that migrated were Conservative or Conservative leaning and their movement made the Battleground states Red-er?
Chessrat, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
Abbasi786786, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
If one compares the seven charts in CNN’s analysis or the five charts of PBS’ insights, the population shifts appear to correlate well to the Red State shift of the Battleground States and thus the Electoral College swing towards Trump.
I don’t have the resources to confirm this theory, but the correlation appears strong at first blush.
If true–and that’s a big ‘if’ at this point–this organic real-world experiment in population shifts offers strong evidence for the importance of the Electoral College. This shift is unprecedented in American history but has often been a thought experiment–in one form or another–in the Electoral College debate.
Yet, the reason—again, ‘if’ true—that Conservatives living in Blue States might have chosen to move to Red or Red-leaning States is not arbitrary. According to one study, they likely chose their new state based on political reasons, indirectly if not directly.
The Electoral College favors neither Blue nor Red. As Tara Ross states in her book, “A careful study of history reveals that the Electoral College is neither pro-Demcrot nor pro-Republican. It simply rewards the candidate who appears to be listening to the greatest cross-section of people at any given time.”
The key phrase is “cross-section” whereby each state represents a clustering of like-minded people at least in the aggregate. A strong Presidential candidate must appeal to as many clusters and states as possible rather than relying on a single demographic to carry the day.
The dispersal of Blue State populations during the COVID pandemic unmasked hidden clusters that were non-obvious in Blue-dominated regions.
As I have often stated, I’m not a Trump supporter, but I’m not a Trump hater either. Trump—for good or for bad—was able to capture this new diversity of clusters as the Electoral College demands.
#electoralcollege #election2024 #trump #harris #campaign2024 #redstate #bluestate #covid #population
